At present, traditional methods used in forecasting the development of economic sectors no longer provide acceptable results; thus it becomes relevant to work out new methods and approaches to industry forecasting. The paper proposes an approach to forecasting the development of industries under the influence of processes taking place in the social sphere. We consider major contradictions caused by the influence of metallurgical production on the formation of socio-economic conditions in Russia. We show that social factors played a significant role in making decisions on the establishment of metallurgical enterprises and the management of the metal market. We highlight major social functions performed by metallurgy. The study of the commodity market of metal products is supplemented by an analysis of changes in the positions of metallurgical enterprises in the capital market and the labor market. We note that social expenditures help metallurgical companies to gain public recognition of their performance results and change the level of their capitalization. This made it possible to develop a methodological approach to assessing the prospects of industry development with the use of guidelines for Russia’s social development. We propose to use the following economic criterion: assessment of accumulation of funds invested in the development of production, preservation and growth of capital. We estimate social impact generated by development of metallurgical production under various scenarios of managing the decision-making system in Russia. We compare a business-oriented scenario, a scenario involving state paternalism, and a scenario of radical social transformations. We substantiate the conclusion about the advantages that the social variant of development of the state provides for creating a promising image of national metallurgy. This scenario will ensure high dynamics of metal production, growth of business capitalization and quality of life in Russia
Keywords
social factors, development scenarios, industry forecasting, metallurgy, metal market, social guidelines